Democratic primary now a matter of perceptions
Part of Our World
Dan Rather

The month-plus that has passed since the last Democratic primary, in Mississippi on March 11, has provided proof for the adage that in politics, overnight is a long time, and a week is forever. We are now at forever and about 30 days and counting. Barack Obama has had his Rev. Jeremiah Wright flap, Hillary Clinton has "misspoken" on the threat of snipers in Bosnia, and now Obama is reaping the bitter fruit of calling some voters "bitter."

Obama has echoed the judgment of many political observers that this is "the silly season" in the Democratic primaries, and one does not have to be an Obama supporter to agree.

But finally now, approaching with all the speed of a tortoise on valium, comes the last, long stretch of the Democratic primary season, beginning with Pennsylvania. After New Hampshire, Super Tuesday and the Ohio-Texas two-step, those of us who report on politics should know better by now than to call any contest "potentially decisive," let alone predict outcomes. Nonetheless, the upcoming contest in the Keystone State promises to be key to figuring out just where this whole thing goes, and whether that destination may be Denver, where the Democratic National Convention will be held in late August.

Since Obama's post-Super Tuesday run of 11 straight primary victories, Clinton's argument for the continued viability of her candidacy has rested on four pillars: Pillar one is the fact that both candidates will need superdelegates to put them over the top for the nomination (and these superdelegates are technically free to choose whomever they wish); pillar two is the possibility that she could emerge, at the end of the primaries, with a lead in popular votes (whereas a lead in pledged delegates is all but impossible); three is the fact that she has won big states such as New York, California and Texas; and four is the doubt she and her surrogates have tried to sow about Obama's chances in the general election.

Now that it looks as if Clinton's hopes for do-over votes in Michigan and Florida will go unfulfilled, we don't hear much anymore about pillar two, because without the votes these states would provide, the prospect of her coming out of the primaries with a greater share of raw votes is now the longest of long shots. And if she doesn't win Pennsylvania, the big-state pillar will crumble as well.

Short of another New Hampshire style surprise, indications are that Clinton will prevail in Pennsylvania. But the doubledigit lead she once enjoyed there has become, in many polls, a margin of five to eight points. "Bittergate" may have slowed Obama's gains but it has not yet caused discernible rollback in his support. Meanwhile, Clinton's focus on Pennsylvania - where both she and Obama have broken state records with their biggest advertising buys to date - has meant that she can't play the game of tamping down expectations. As a result, a closer than-expected outcome could come off looking like an Obama win. All about perceptions? You bet. The Clinton campaign now leans heavily on perceptions, because the numbers won't help her. And if she doesn't pull out a big win next Tuesday, look for her to try to bring together the pillars she has left - the independence of the superdelegates, and the idea that Obama can't win in November. Whether or not this strategy will work remains a mystery, but there is increasing fear among many Democrats that, after the Keystone vote, her remaining pillars could come crashing down on the party's chances to recapture the White House.

Dan Rather, a Wharton native, was Managing Editor of the CBS Evening News for 24 years. His column appears by arrangement with King Features Syndicate.