Run for presidency far from over after primary elections in initial two states

MANCHESTER, N.H. - Even before it was clear who had won in the Granite State, it was becoming obvious who the losers were: all the prognosticators, pundits and press - including your writer - who had not only predicted the outcomes with confidence but had also gone on to proclaim, with equal doses of hubris, the likely repercussions of those outcomes.

It just served to underscore that all the bloviating in the world, no matter how impeccable its pedigree, isn't worth a pile of New Hampshire slush until a vote is cast.

Republican strategist Mike Murphy, who has run campaigns for John McCain and Mitt Romney, reminded your reporter of a corollary to this, by paraphrasing one-time Mc- Govern strategist Milt Gwirtzman:

"No national poll means anything until after the first contest."

The road to a presidential nomination proceeds state by state, as the Republicans' putative national front-runner Rudy Giuliani is discovering.

And now it's beginning to look as if both the Democrats and the Republicans will have to run through quite a few more states before either party will know the identity of its standard-bearer for the fall campaign.

Two things can keep a presidential run going: popular support and money.

If you're a candidate, you hope to have both, but as long as you have one or the other you have at least an outside shot. After New Hampshire, the Clinton campaign coffers stand to receive a much-needed infusion of cash from donors who were starting to grow skeptical. With Barack Obama's campaign still raising money with startling speed and skill, and John Edwards showing tenacity in the face of disappointing finishes, we could very well go into Feb. 5th's mega-Tuesday primary with the Democrats' "big three" still running and the result - at least between Obama and Clinton - very much a question mark.

On the Republican side, Romney may be down, but with his ability to write checks for his own campaign, he won't truly be out until he decides enough is enough.

The big-time donor money will start to flow into McCain's campaign now, and we can't count out Mike Huckabee, whose third-place showing in New Hampshire looks a lot better when you consider where he was in the polls just

a few weeks ago, not to mention the fact that Giuliani finished well below him, barely edging out Ron Paul.

So you can ignore all the people who, hours after they were writing Clinton's political obituary, began writing Obama's. Heading into South Carolina, where African-Americans comprise about half of Democratic primary voters, some strategists have pointed out that Obama may be positioned well to keep his campaign going.

You probably can pay some heed to those who now want to anoint McCain the clear Republican front-runner, but don't bet the double-wide on anything just yet.

Not so long as evangelical Christians remain leery of Mc- Cain, and Mike Huckabee's still in the race.

Big turnouts in Iowa and New Hampshire and an anyone's guess contest going forward make it tempting to declare that voters are the real winner here.

But along with a renewed appreciation for the worthlessness of political predictions, something else is also becoming clear - this front-loaded, rapid-fire primary process is probably not the right answer for either party.

The Clinton campaign survived New Hampshire to fight another day, but the very real prospect that a loss could have dealt a terminal blow to such a strong candidate should tell us that there are some major bugs in the system.

Front-runners aren't owed anything by anyone.

But in a nation of 50 states, a run for the presidency should not reach the finish line in the two states that mark the starting line for this quadrennial mad dash.

Dan Rather, a Wharton native, was Managing Editor of the CBS Evening News for 24 years. His column appears by arrangement with King Features Syndicate.