State races could impact drawing of congressional districts

For casual observers, the upcoming 2008 presidential election dominates the political landscape. Those who watch electoral politics a little more closely may also have the 2008 congressional elections in their sights. But ask the hard-core pros, those who toil in the political trenches every day, what's on their minds, and you may be surprised at the answer.

Because a lot of them are putting particular interest, effort and thought into the 2008 state races - for governor and, especially, for state legislators.

On the Democratic side, strategist James Carville made just this point in a recent interview with your reporter, and you can bet it ranks high on the concerns of Republican strategists as well.

The reason why can be found in Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution, which mandates the taking of a census every 10 years in order to determine congressional apportionment.

The next census will be taken in 2010, and it will be used to determine which states lose or gain representation in the House of Representatives.

That reapportionment will also mean that, in 2011, congressional district lines will be redrawn in many states. And just how these districts get redrawn, to the benefit of which party and candidates, will be determined in most cases by the legislatures and governors put into place in the 2008 election.

In today's closely divided and fiercely contested political landscape, this is no small thing, no minor detail. The way a congressional district is drawn can be and often is decisive in determining who wins that district.

The practice of drawing districts in order to favor a specific party or candidate, known as gerrymandering, is almost as old as American politics (the term itself was coined during the Madison administration). In the past couple of decades, though, districting battles have been waged with new ferocity, as the means for drawing boundaries meant to all but ensure a particular outcome have become ever more precise.

Ask Democrats about redistricting and they will fulminate about Republican efforts since 2001 to contort district lines in an effort to build their hoped-for "permanent majority." Ask Republicans, and they'll tell you that the Democrats did much the same, with similar ruthlessness, for years - and they're likely to add their thought that this did much to produce the long run of Democratic House control that began in 1954.

These are how the major parties view the stakes in the upcoming 2008 state races - as a bid to influence who holds sway in Congress until 2020. Census years are no longer the only opportunity for states to redraw districts - a 2006 Supreme Court ruling now allows them to be redrawn mid-decade as well - but holding control of state legislatures or governors' mansions during a census-mandated reapportionment still remains the ultimate prize for partisan strategists. And that has party money pouring into state races heading into 2008.

On the major political questions of our day, particularly domestic issues such as taxes, health care and immigration, Republicans and Democrats know that who controls the House can be nearly as important as who resides in the White House.

Come 2010, many traditionally Democratic states in the Northeast and the so-called Rust Belt are expected to lose seats in the House, while a number of traditionally Republican states in the West and Southwest are expected to gain representation.

It's a scenario that sets up the prospect of more pitched battles to come for control of the people's House, and for a set of upcoming state races that will give new meaning to former House Speaker Tip O'Neill's oft-quoted adage that "All politics is local."

Dan Rather, a native of Wharton, was Managing Editor of the CBS Evening News for 24 years. His column appears by arrangement of King Features Syndicate.