Plenty of drama in presidential race
Part of Our World
Dan Rather

With less than six weeks to go until the first real test of the 2008 election season, both the Democratic and Republican presidential fields are supplying their allotments of drama. But if you're looking for a true, race-changing moment in Iowa, you're far more likely to find it among the Republicans than you are with the Democrats.

Analyses of the Democratic presidential race tend to have a binary quality: It's either Hillary or Not-Hillary. And if Sen. Clinton can weather the current rough patch in her campaign to produce a win in the Iowa precinct caucuses, the odds are defi- nitely on "Hillary."

Competition in the Hawkeye State is tick tight - a virtual dead heat among Clinton, John Edwards and Sen. Barack Obama in the most recent New York Times/CBS poll. But Edwards' limited campaign funds, combined with the deluge of early primaries following the firstin the-nation caucus, means that he almost certainly needs a win or a convincing secondplace showing in Iowa to keep his candidacy alive; Obama, too, will likely have his best shot in Iowa or New Hampshire.

Clinton, meanwhile, with her massive recognition factor, her money and her organization, may be the only Democrat who could sustain disappointing finishes in both Iowa and New Hampshire and still manage to land the nomination.

Over on the Republican side, things are less clear.

Some see clarity in the prevailing sense that Rudy Giuliani is the GOP front-runner. And if the nomination were decided by a national primary, he might be - or maybe it would be Fred Thompson. But look at the polling for the actual contests approaching in Iowa and New Hampshire and you'll see Mitt Romney with a strong lead in both of these tone-setting states.

It's just the kind of situation that cries out for the arrival of a dark horse, the kind of leap from relative obscurity to top-tier candidate that seems to happen at least once in every election cycle. Enter Mike Huckabee.

The former governor of Arkansas currently stands in second place in most Iowa polling, and he, like Edwards on the Democratic side, is staking his campaign on a strong showing there. Interestingly, no less an observer of presidential politics than James Carville recently told your reporter that Edwards was finished, but Huckabee bears watching.

These two candidates' fortunes diverge largely because, unlike the Democrats, the Republican base isn't sure it's found a candidate behind which it can unite. With Sen. Sam Brownback now out of the race, Huckabee would seem to be the natural choice of values voters, and such rank-and-file members of the GOP may well be behind his recent rise in the Iowa standings. Pat Robertson's endorsement of Giuliani figures to hurt Huckabee, though it remains to be seen whether other conservative Christian opinion leaders will follow Robertson's example or give Huckabee a chance to impress them.

Could an Iowa win set Huckabee up for a real run at the nomination? Skeptics cite his populist economic views as a reason he may not be able to make inroads among the Republicans' other constituencies, while those bullish on Huckabee point out that his sunny disposition puts him in the winning tradition of Ronald Reagan.

There's still plenty of time to go until Caucus Day, Jan. 3. Plenty of time for a front-runner (or perceived front-runner) to stumble, and maybe, just maybe, time for a candidate such as Huckabee to inject some new life and ideas into a race that feels as if it's been going on forever - even though it hasn't even really started.

Dan Rather, a native of Wharton, was Managing Editor of the CBS Evening News for 24 years. His column appears by arrangement with King Features Syndicate.